The Phoenix Suns find themselves in a familiar position as they enter the 2023 NBA Draft later this month.
The Suns are without a first-round pick for the fourth straight draft, thanks to acquiring former Brooklyn Nets star Kevin Durant in February. It follows the lines of similar deals made for guard Chris Paul (in 2022) and Mikal Bridges (in 2021).
This year, the Suns will have one pick in the two-round event that will be held at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center on June 22, with Phoenix selecting 52nd overall.
The Suns have made 41 second-round picks since 1988, landing several franchise cornerstones, such as guard Marcin Gortat in 2005 and guard Steve Kerr in 1988.
But if Arizona sports betting offered odds on such things, you would be wise not to expect much from the Suns in the second round.
Phoenix has not landed a second-round unicorn like Denver two-time MVP Nikola Jokic (41st pick in 2014) or former San Antonio guard Manu Ginobili (57th pick in 1999).
BetArizona.com broke down the career win share of each second-round pick since 1988 to see how much value Suns fans can expect from the team’s pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
Suns Second-Round Picks Since 2000
Arizona sports betting apps list Victor Wembanyama as the overwhelming favorite (-50000) to go to San Antonio with the first pick in the draft. Alabama’s Brandon Miller is favored to go with the second pick to Charlotte.
Will 52nd Pick Net Suns A Solid NBA Player?
Based on the team’s recent track record, there’s little reason to expect a franchise player to fall to the Suns with the 52nd pick.
The Suns’ last 15 second-round picks have netted career win share totals of 10.0 or less, with the last impact player being Gortat in 2005.
Still, thanks in large part to the career longevity of older second-round selections, like Kerr (47.2 career win share), Cedric Ceballos (40.4 career win share) and Stephen Jackson (36.1 career win share), the Suns’ second -round picks have averaged 11.2 win share between them since 1988.
The team’s best second-round draft class was in 1988, when Kerr was joined by former Arkansas Razorback Andrew Lang (28.6 win share) and Dean Garrett of Indiana (14.1 win share) — with the trio producing a combined total of 89.9 win share among them during their NBA careers.
Conversely, six Suns second-round draft classes had combined career win share of 0.0, illustrating how fickle it can be to try and predict which late picks will pan out.
FanDuel Sportsbook Arizona lists Phoenix at +700 to win the 2024 NBA title, the league’s fourth-best odds. Denver is +460 to repeat as champions.