Is Arizona A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?

The Grand Canyon State is officially in play for the Democratic Party in 2024, as the state of Arizona readies for another presidential election this fall. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden became the first member of the party to win the 48th State since Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in 1996. Four straight Republicans (George W. Bush [twice], John McCain, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump) carried Arizona between 2000 and 2016.  

The last time the Democratic Party captured Arizona two presidential elections in a row was the stretch between 1932 and 1948, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt won the state four elections in a row, followed by Harry S. Truman doing the same in 1948.  

In between, 11 consecutive elections went for the GOP candidate for president, starting with Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and running through Trump in 2016 — though a series of demographic shifts, combined with an increasingly independent electorate, eroded the Republican Party’s base in the state.  

With the two parties’ Presidential Preference Elections coming up on March 19, BetArizona.com — typically home to all things Arizona sportsbooks — broke down the odds on which presidential party has the upper hand at the moment in securing the 11 electoral votes Arizona has to offer in 2024.

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Is Arizona A Red Or Blue State In 2024?

Utilizing the average results of three current polls for the 2024 Presidential Election, BetArizona.com developed the following odds of how Arizona will vote in 2024. The three polls were “Franklin & Marshall,” “Bloomberg / Morning Consult” and “Susquehanna Polling.”  

Party Odds Pct. Chance
Democrat (Blue) +12045.5%
Republican (Red) +105 48.7%

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Recent Arizona Voting In Presidential Elections

Election YearDemocratic Candidate Republican Candidate
2020 Joe Biden (49.4%) Donald Trump (49.1%)
2016 Hillary Clinton (45.11%) Donald Trump (48.7)
2012Barack Obama (44.6%) Mitt Romney (53.7%)
2008 Barack Obama (45.1%) John McCain (53.6%)
2004 John Kerry (44.4%)George W. Bush (54.9%)

Can Joe Biden Carry The Democrats To Another Win In Arizona?

While we’re still more than eight months out from the 2024 election, it seems more and more likely we’re set for a rematch at the top of the ticket between Biden and Trump, with the two parties coalescing around the candidates.  

In Arizona, the state’s electorate has voted for the eventual winning presidential candidate 66.7% of the time between 2000 and 2020, while one of the six candidates this century (Biden) has won the Grand Canyon State’s electoral college votes as a Democrat.  

This year, BetArizona.com gives the incumbent party slight underdog status against the GOP, with the Democrats coming in at +120 to capture the Grand Canyon State again in 2024, while the Republicans are listed at +105.  

In 2020, Biden won Arizona with 49.4% of the popular vote to Trump’s 49.1%, meaning the state will likely see another razor-thin margin when the final vote count comes out in November.  

One way or another, the Democrats will be counting on Arizona to bolster their electoral score this November, with the Grand Canyon State suddenly swinging from Republican shoo-in to a swing state in the truest form in 2024.  

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Author

Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetArizona.com after covering sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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