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Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetArizona.com after covering sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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Is Arizona A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?
On the heels of the 2024 Democratic National Convention, it appears that President Joe Biden’s Vice President might have flipped the script on the 2024 election, as Kamala Harris now leads one-time President Donald Trump across U.S. national polls on aggregate.
Overall, research by The New York Times finds that Harris is currently polling at 49% (to Trump’s 46%), with the two candidates deadlocked at 47% apiece in the Grand Canyon State, speaking to the importance of Arizona in the national political landscape.
Four years ago, Biden became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996 to carry the 48th State, with no other candidate securing more than 45.1% of Arizona’s electorate between those two election cycles.
In 2020, Biden finished with 49.4% of votes, narrowly beating out Trump’s total of 49.1% to secure the 48th State’s 11 Electoral College votes, setting the stage for a 2024 showdown that both parties are rearing for as the summer ends.
With both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions wrapped up, BetArizona.com — typically home to all things Arizona sportsbooks — wanted to know the breakdown of what states are more interested in Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump. Using Google Trends, we found the top 7 potential swing states search interest scores for both “Kamala Harris” and “Donald Trump.” Then we found which candidate Arizona metro regions are searching for. The search period was over the past 30-days ending on August 26, 2024.
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Arizona Metro Breakdown: Harris vs. Trump
Metro | Harris Search Interest Score | Trump Search Interest Score |
Phoenix | 76 | 24 |
Tucson | 75 | 25 |
Yuma | 74 | 26 |
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Right now, if search interest scores were votes, it’d be safe to say that Harris would be carrying the state’s three largest metros with room to spare, as the Democratic Party candidate has scores of 76, 75 and 74 in Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma, respectively.
Those totals nearly triple Trump’s sums in the three areas, with the former reality TV show star notching search interest scores of 24 (Phoenix), 25 (Tucson) and 26 (Yuma), speaking to the vast divide in electoral preferences between Arizona’s urban and rural areas.
Swing States: Harris vs. Trump
State | Harris Search Interest Score | Trump Search Interest Score |
Arizona | 72 | 95 |
Georgia | 69 | 81 |
Michigan | 77 | 100 |
North Carolina | 74 | 84 |
Pennsylvania | 80 | 95 |
Nevada | 67 | 89 |
Wisconsin | 75 | 87 |
Despite Harris’ large lead in terms of search interest scores in places like Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma, the Democratic flagbearer in the 2024 election lags behind Trump statewide, with a total of 72 to the Republican’s score of 95.
That divide between Harris and Trump in Arizona is similar to other swing states, with the Republican former president notching better totals in Georgia (81 to 69), Michigan (100 to 77), North Carolina (84 to 74), Pennsylvania (95 to 80), Nevada (89 to 67) and Wisconsin (87 to 75).
Luckily for Harris’ camp, the election isn’t determined by search traffic online, which gives the former Senator from California 69 days to try and hammer home her camp’s message so they can appeal to voters, as the Democrats look to keep their spot in the White House through 2028 on Nov. 5.
USA Today photo by Jasper Colt.
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