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Christopher Boan is the lead writer at BetArizona.com after covering sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Pac 12 Expansion Candidates: Odds For Next Colleges To Join Conference
The new era of the Pac-12 is set to kick off in a year, with the eight-team conference (for football) and nine-team collective in other sports hitting the number needed to compete in the Football Bowl Subdivision by adding Sun Belt stalwart Texas State on July 1. TSU joins the likes of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga (in non-football sports), Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah State and Washington State.
While eight is the magic number for FBS membership, it does create scheduling headaches for schools, as it would leave the Pac-12 with seven conference games (and five non-conference clashes), which is why commissioner Teresa Gould is apparently looking to add a ninth, football-only member to the fray, per John Canzano. With that in mind, BetArizona.com broke down the latest odds on who the next member of the Pac-12 will be, with Texas rising power UTSA joining other American Athletic Conference programs like Tulane, Memphis and Rice at the top of our list.
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Pac 12 Expansion Candidates: Odds For Next College To Join Conference
College | Odds |
UTSA | +175 |
Tulane | +425 |
Memphis | +550 |
Rice | +700 |
UNLV | +1500 |
North Texas | +2750 |
Sacramento State | +9000 |
The Field | +1000 |
Odds provided by BetArizona and not available on Arizona betting apps.
While Texas State and the five other schools mentioned above are set to join Oregon State and Washington State in the conference on July 1, 2026, there’s ample reason for Gould and her team to look for another member in the Pac-12. Those include the scheduling issues laid out above and the relative security that having nine football members would provide and the perk of throwing a haymaker at another non-Power Five conference, with Gould having an opportunity to destabilize the conference that’s the biggest threat to the Pac-12’s illusions of future football grandeur.
The six Pac-12 newcomers are tasked with filling the void left by the 10 Pac-12 members that departed the conference last summer, with Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington defecting to the Big Ten, while Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah went to the Big 12 and Cal and Stanford left for the ACC.
That leaves at least one opening in the newfound Pac-12, as FBS conferences are required to have eight full (football plus other sports) members to be officially recognized by the NCAA, which opens the door for a few mid-major teams from across the country.
Right now, our top target for the Pac-12 is one of the AAC’s rising stars, in UTSA, which has gone 86-78 (.524) since launching a football program of its own back in 2011, with five straight winning seasons under head coach Jeff Traylor’s watch. While schools like UTSA (or Tulane, Memphis and Rice) would have to fork over anywhere from $10 million to $27.5 million in exit fees to the AAC if they leave, it might be worth the costs involved for Gould and her team to break the bank and send a message to the rest of the country that the Pac-12 is serious about being a football-first conference.
UNLV, Sacramento State Still In Mix
With a new media deal that is projected to pay out between $70-and-$100 million annually (between the conference’s members), that would mean that AAC members would be in line to potentially make upwards of $12 million if they jump ship, nearly double the $7 million per year that the American makes through its deal with ESPN.
When it comes to future Pac-12 expansion, keep an eye on some non-AAC options, such as UNLV (+1500) and Sacramento State (+9000) to slide in as that ninth member in the newly reconstituted Pac-12 for 2026, while another AAC option (North Texas) is also on our list, with the Denton program sitting at +2750 to join Texas State in the reformed Pac-12.
One way or another, the AAC will play a central role in the next wave of conference realignment, with schools like UTSA, Tulane and Memphis potentially defecting from their longtime conference home, even if they did rebuke the Pac-12’s expansion overtures last year.
The Roadrunners, Green Wave and the Tigers have put forth quality football and men’s basketball teams in recent years and would be a coup for Gould, with conference insider John Canzano listing all three as strong candidates to defect to the West Coast conference next.
The biggest stumbling block for Gould and company remains the staggering exit fee that AAC schools have to cough up if they move on by the time the Pac-12 reforms in 2026, though there’s no such thing as a dealbreaker in today’s NCAA world where realignment is the name of the game right now.
Pac 12 Expansion News
June 30, 2022: UCLA and USC announce they are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, setting in motion the instability that ultimately tore apart the original Pac-12 Conference
June 30, 2023: Then-Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff’s attempts to add SMU and San Diego State to the Pac-12 to replace the two L.A. schools come and go without happening, leading many to wonder if the conference’s days are numbered
July 27, 2023: Colorado announces it is leaving the conference for the Big 12, leading many to begin writing the Pac-12’s epitaph
Aug. 4, 2023: Oregon and Washington announce they are leaving to join the Big Ten, while Arizona, ASU and Utah all announce exit plans for the Big 12 that same day, leaving Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State as the lone members of the Pac-12
Sept. 1, 2023: Cal and Stanford announce they are leaving the Pac-12 for the ACC, leaving the two remaining members of the Pac-12
Aug. 2, 2024: All 10 of the departing schools officially exit the Pac-12, leaving Oregon State and Washington State to rebuild the conference from the ground up
Sept. 12, 2024: Four Mountain West Conference members (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State) announce they are leaving the conference to join the Pac-12 in 2026.
Sept. 23, 2024: Utah State also announces it is leaving the Mountain West to join the Pac-12 in 2026.
July 1, 2025: Texas State announces it will leave the Sun Belt to join the Pac-12 in 2026.
Stick with BetArizona for all college football developments, including Arizona Bowl Projections.
USA Today photo by Mark J. Rebilas.
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Pac 12 Expansion News FAQ
In 2026, the Pac 12 will include Texas State, Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Utah State and Gonzaga (non-football member). Until then, Oregon State and Washington State will be the only football members of the conference.
The Pac-12 Conference underwent significant changes in recent years. Prominent schools, starting with UCLA and USC, departed and that led to other remaining schools following suit via conference realignment. The future of the Pac-12 was left in limbo with just Oregon State and Washington State remaining.
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