Arizona 2022 Senatorial and Gubernatorial Election Odds Breakdown

The state of Arizona looks increasingly likely to vote Democrat in both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial  elections this fall — and the latest politics odds suggest there’s no way back for the Republican candidates across Arizona sportsbooks.

Voters in the Grand Canyon State head to the polls Nov. 8 tasked with electing a new Governor and Senator. While the governor role is being vacated by the departing Doug Ducey, in the Senate Mark Kelly is fighting to keep his seat against Republican Blake Masters.

Now that the final primaries are out the way, all eyes are on the midterms. Arizona is a swing state here, and both the Dems and the GOP are fighting hard to secure two important seats.

And so, we’ve crunched the numbers from both polling data and betting odds available in Europe to provide the most accurate overview of each candidates’ chances of winning their respective battles this fall. 

Using FiveThirtyEight’s simulations and Politico predictions, here are the latest politics betting prices for Arizona.

Date Mark Kelly (D) Blake Masters (R)
9/1573.5% / -27835.2% / +184
9/29 76.9% / -33225.8% / +288
10/5 68.2% / -21434.1% / +193

Kelly Holds Lead Over Masters

With just a few weeks to go before the US midterms for Arizona betting apps, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly leads his rival Blake Masters in both the polls and the betting odds. Kelly has been in the post two years and was the only candidate put forward by the Dems this summer. He has the edge in a race that is centered on abortion, the economy, and immigration.

According to CBS, Kelly’s personal approval ratings are keeping him ahead of Masters. But the Republican candidate is pulling in ground when it comes to immigration — a common issue for GOP supporters — and has a 55-45 poll lead over his rival among men.

This battle isn’t over yet. Masters has Donald Trump’s endorsement and billionaire Peter Thiel’s financial backing. His slick campaign had him riding high in July, but since August he’s fallen in the estimation of voters.

Mixed messages, a swing to the far right and an inability to capture the attention of independents means Masters is now on the back foot.

In September, both the odds and polls began to steadily edge in Kelly’s favor. Right now Masters is fighting a popular figure, even if his party’s policies aren’t sticking with most Americans, and is losing ground.

And because personality counts for just as much as policy when it comes to voter intention, it’s hard to see how Masters reverses this trend against a popular rival.

Date Katie Hobbs (D) Kari Lake (R)
9/1554.0% / -11748.6% / +106
9/29 48.0% / +10853.8% / -166
10/5 48.3% / +10753.9% / -117

Governor's Race is Tight

TV news anchor Kari Lake was the big favorite to win the Republican nomination for the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. She lived up to the politics odds, beating Karrin Taylor Robson to the pick with almost 48% of the vote.

But Lake doesn’t have it so easy now that she’s up against a Democrat. In Katie Hobbs, Lake appears to have a genuine rival for the Arizona governor seat. Hobbs is from a working class background, was a social worker before getting into politics and is seen as a prospect for big things within the Democratic party.

Lake is a TV personality with a sharp wit, exceptional debating abilities and a willingness to toe the Republican party line on the dividing issues in this election.

Right now the polls can barely split them. Hobbs led by 1 point in a late-September FOX poll. Yet Lake has more “enthusiastic” support and can rely on that bedrock to help get her voice out there.

It’s teed up to be a fascinating race for both contenders. And both betting sites and pollsters believe Hobbs vs Lake will reflect the wider state of U.S. politics. While Lake is ready to “shake the table” in the GOP, Hobbs is supposedly playing catch-up with the Dems’ consumption on themes of social justice and identity politics. 

This race really is too close to call right now.

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Joe Short, a contributor to, is a freelance journalist and former editor at the Daily Express, covering various sports, including soccer, darts and tennis.

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